Last updated on: 23/10/2026 11:01
The simulation comprises 10,000 runs. The graph presents the top 100 outcomes; accordingly, only outcomes accounting for more than 1% of all runs are displayed. More granular results are provided in the accompanying tables.
| Party | Bottom 5% |
Top 95% |
Average | Mode |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likud | 16 | 30 | 22.7 | 23 |
| Yashar! | 15 | 29 | 22.3 | 22 |
| B'Yachad (Bennett and Lapid) | 9 | 18 | 13.6 | 14 |
| The Democrats | 6 | 13 | 9.2 | 9 |
| Joint List | 0 | 14 | 8.8 | 9 |
| Shas | 5 | 11 | 8.2 | 8 |
| Otzma Yehudit | 5 | 11 | 7.6 | 8 |
| United Torah Judaism | 5 | 11 | 7.6 | 8 |
| Israel Beitanu | 5 | 10 | 7.5 | 8 |
| Religious Zionists | 4 | 9 | 6.8 | 7 |
| Ra'am | 0 | 9 | 5.0 | 5 |
| The Reservists | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Ofer Winter | 0 | 4 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Blue and White | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Bloc | Bottom 5% |
Top 95% |
Average | Mode |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Coalition | 44 | 62 | 53.1 | 53 |
| The Opposition | 43 | 62 | 52.6 | 53 |
| Arab Parties | 6 | 20 | 13.8 | 14 |
| 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Coalition Majority: 8.30% |
| Opposition Majority (without Arab parties): 7.97% |
| No Majority without Arab parties: 83.73% |
| More Seats for the Coalition: 50.02% |
| More Seats for the Opposition (without Arab parties): 45.83% |
| Coalition-Opposition Tie (without Arab parties): 4.15% |
