Madad Poll
Seat Projections & Public Opinion · August 12, 2026
Sampling error ±3.9% (95% confidence)
The poll was conducted among 1,240 respondents with a maximum sampling error of ±3.9%. Field date: August 11, 2026.
Knesset Seats (out of 120)
This week’s projection and change from last week. Yashar! holds its lead at 23; Likud drops to 21. Hendel-Tropper returns above the threshold with 4 seats.
Coalition, Between, and Opposition
Majority threshold: 61 seats. Hendel-Tropper (4) is positioned between the blocs and has not committed to either side.
Where Are Voters Right Now?
Distribution of voters by degree of commitment (excluding “won’t vote”).
Between the blocs · 5%
Undecided between blocs · 10%
Certain opposition voters · 51%
If Yashar!+Tropper Merge; Gantz+Shaked; Ardan+Edelstein Run Separately
A projection based on various potential realignments ahead of the October elections.
| Party / List | Seats |
|---|---|
| Yashar! + Hendel-Tropper (merged) | 22 |
| Likud | 20 |
| The Democrats | 12 |
| B’Yachad (Bennett) | 12 |
| Israel Beitanu | 11 |
| Hadash-Ta’al & Balad (joint) | 9 |
| Otzma Yehudit | 9 |
| United Torah Judaism | 8 |
| Shas | 6 |
| Religious Zionists | 6 |
| Ra’am | 5 |
Below threshold in this scenario: Gantz-Shaked 2.1% · Ardan-Edelstein 1.5%.
How Firm Are Voters? The Friability Index
Overall: 43% absolutely certain of their vote · 45% fairly certain · 11% not very certain. Firmness varies sharply by party.
| Party | Absolutely certain (%) |
|---|---|
| Ra’am | 92% |
| Hadash-Ta’al | 81% |
| United Torah Judaism | 65% |
| Likud | 62% |
| National average: 43% | |
| Israel Beitanu | 17% |
| Religious Zionists | 27% |
| Hendel-Tropper | 28% |
Who Is Fit to Be Prime Minister?
| Candidate | Last Week | This Week |
|---|---|---|
| Eisenkot | 46% | 47% ▲1 |
| Netanyahu | 36% | 34% ▼2 |
| Don’t know | 18% | 19% |
| Coalition voters | All others | |
|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu | 90% | — |
| Eisenkot | — | 71% |
Netanyahu and the Gaza “15 Points Document”
Reports indicate that Netanyahu rejected a framework document from mediators for a Gaza deal. Which statement is closest to your view?
| Statement | Share |
|---|---|
| Netanyahu didn’t really reject it — it was theater | 33% |
| He acted correctly in rejecting the document | 27% |
| He acted wrongly in rejecting the document | 12% |
| Don’t know / didn’t follow | 28% |
Should Israelis Living Abroad Be Allowed to Vote?
| Answer | Share |
|---|---|
| Yes, they should be allowed to vote | 51% |
| No, they should not | 33% |
| Don’t know | 16% |
Likud Primaries: Leavers vs. Stayers
An analysis of current Likud voters divides them into two groups: those likely to stay with Likud after primaries and those who might leave.
Likud’s internal composition matters: how the party list emerges from primaries may determine whether its voters stay or migrate to other right-wing parties.
