Political Snapshot
Madad Poll
Seat Projections & Public Opinion · August 19, 2026
1,247 respondents
Sampling error ±3.8% (95% confidence)
Sampling error ±3.8% (95% confidence)
Madad Poll — Shmuel Rosner & Noah Slepkov · In partnership with Project Midgam (Dr. Ariel Ayalon), Askaria (Dudi Dror), and StatNet (Yosef Makhleda). Additional data: Hive. Statistical consultants: Prof. David Steinberg.
The poll was conducted among 1,247 respondents (including 879 for the seat projection and 634 for the undecided voter panel), with an average national sampling error of ±3.8 percentage points. Field date: August 18, 2026.
The poll was conducted among 1,247 respondents (including 879 for the seat projection and 634 for the undecided voter panel), with an average national sampling error of ±3.8 percentage points. Field date: August 18, 2026.
Seat Projections
Knesset Seats (out of 120)
This week’s projection and change from last week. Yashar! jumps 3 to 26; Likud rises 2 to 23; Bayit Yehudi (Tropper-Hendel) falls below the electoral threshold.
Yashar!
26▲3
Likud
23▲2
B’Yachad (Bennett)
13▲1
The Democrats
11—
Israel Beitanu
9▼1
Otzma Yehudit
8—
United Torah Judaism
8—
Shas
7—
Hadash-Ta’al
5▼1
Religious Zionists
5—
Ra’am
5—
Below the electoral threshold: Balad 1.9% · Blue and White (Gantz) 1.8% · Bayit Yehudi (Tropper-Hendel) 1.6% · Unity Party (Erdan) 1.2%.
Bloc Calculation
Coalition vs. Opposition
Netanyahu Coalition
51
Opposition & Others
69
Majority threshold: 61 seats. This week the “Between the Blocs” group disappears — all 120 seats divide between the two blocs. The opposition holds a clear majority.
Voter Mapping
Where Are Voters Right Now?
Distribution of voters by degree of commitment (excluding “won’t vote”).
Certain coalition voters · 31%
Between the blocs · 4%
Undecided between blocs · 10%
Certain opposition voters · 55%
Between the blocs · 4%
Undecided between blocs · 10%
Certain opposition voters · 55%
Special Analysis
From Which Parties Can Winter Draw Voters?
From the Madad undecided voter panel — share of each party’s supporters who are considering voting for Ofer Winter’s list.
| Party | Considering Winter |
|---|---|
| Erdan-Edelstein | 66% |
| Religious Zionists | 48% |
| Bayit Yehudi (Tropper-Hendel) | 47% |
| Other party | 31% |
| Blue and White (Gantz) | 15% |
| B’Yachad (Bennett) | 13% |
| Israel Beitanu (Liberman) | 13% |
| Otzma Yehudit | 9% |
| Likud | 8% |
| Yashar! | 7% |
| Don’t know / undecided | 17% |
Prime Minister
Who Is Fit to Be Prime Minister?
| Candidate | Last Week | This Week |
|---|---|---|
| Eisenkot | 47% | 47% |
| Netanyahu | 34% | 38% |
| Don’t know | 19% | 15% |
| Candidate | Total | Coalition Supporters | All Others |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eisenkot | 47% | 2% | 67% |
| Netanyahu | 38% | 93% | 19% |
| Don’t know | 15% | 5% | 14% |
| Candidate | Total | Coalition Supporters | All Others |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett | 43% | 1% | 62% |
| Netanyahu | 42% | 96% | 23% |
| Don’t know | 15% | 3% | 15% |
Analysis
Likud Primaries — What the Public Says
| Total | Likud Supporters | Coalition (non-Likud) | All Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good list | 20% | 57% | 34% | 9% |
| Bad list | 36% | 7% | 7% | 46% |
| Don’t know | 44% | 36% | 59% | 45% |
| Candidate | Total | Likud | Coalition (non-Likud) | All Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amichai Shikli | 29% | 61% | 63% | 11% |
| Amir Ohana | 28% | 55% | 41% | 16% |
| Almog Cohen | 27% | 57% | 51% | 11% |
| Eli Cohen | 24% | 35% | 22% | 21% |
| Yariv Levin | 20% | 35% | 53% | 7% |
| Ofir Katz | 18% | 25% | 29% | 13% |
| Don’t know | 40% | 1% | 2% | 62% |
Foreign Policy
Should Qatar Be Declared an Enemy State?
| Total | Coalition Supporters | All Others | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, declare an enemy state | 47% | 57% | 55% |
| No | 28% | 13% | 18% |
| Don’t know | 25% | 30% | 27% |
