Madad Poll
Seat Projections & Public Opinion · August 5, 2026
Sampling error ±3.7% (95% confidence)
The poll was conducted among 961 respondents with a maximum sampling error of ±3.7%. Field date: August 4, 2026.
Knesset Seats (out of 120)
This week’s projection and change from last week. Yashar! retains the lead at 23; Likud dips to 22. Democrats and Israel Beitanu each gain 2 and 1 respectively. Hendel-Tropper falls below the threshold.
Coalition vs. Opposition
Majority threshold: 61 seats. Hendel-Tropper’s seats are not counted this week (below threshold).
Where Are Voters Right Now?
Distribution of voters by degree of commitment (excluding “won’t vote”).
Between the blocs · 6%
Undecided between blocs · 10%
Certain opposition voters · 46%
What If Ra’am Splits? (with Seglovitch)
Seat projection if a faction splits from Ra’am and runs with Seglovitch, potentially widening the Arab party map.
| Party | Seats |
|---|---|
| Yashar! (Eisenkot) | 23 |
| Likud | 20 |
| B’Yachad (Bennett) | 12 |
| The Democrats | 11 |
| Israel Beitanu | 10 |
| Otzma Yehudit | 9 |
| United Torah Judaism | 8 |
| Hadash-Ta’al & Balad (joint) | 8 |
| Shas | 7 |
| Ra’am (with Seglovitch split) | 7 |
| Religious Zionists | 5 |
Below threshold in this scenario: Hendel-Tropper 2.4% · Ardan-Edelstein 1.7% · Gantz-Simchi 1.4%.
Who Is Fit to Be Prime Minister?
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Eisenkot | 46% |
| Netanyahu | 36% |
| Don’t know | 18% |
If Ra’am Splits, Should It Join the Coalition?
If a Ra’am faction running with Seglovitch crosses the threshold, should it be part of the next coalition?
| Answer | Share |
|---|---|
| Against it joining the coalition regardless | 45% |
| In favor of it joining in that case | 29% |
| Don’t know | 26% |
Netanyahu’s Promise to Draft Haredim — Do You Believe Him?
Netanyahu has pledged that in the next government he will ensure Haredi military service. Do you believe him?
| Answer | Total | Haredi voters |
|---|---|---|
| Do not believe him | 67% | 50% |
| Believe him | 18% | 25% |
| Don’t know | 15% | 25% |
Notably, even 50% of Haredi voters say they do not believe Netanyahu’s pledge on Haredi conscription.
Israelis Who Have Left the Country — Do You Understand Them?
| Answer | Share |
|---|---|
| Yes, I understand them | 66% |
| No, I don’t understand them | 28% |
| Don’t know | 6% |
What Will Drive Your Vote Most?
| Consideration | Share |
|---|---|
| Security, economy, or other issues | 48% |
| Replacing Netanyahu is the main goal | 32% |
| Keeping Netanyahu in power is the main goal | 14% |
| Don’t know | 6% |
| Answer | Share |
|---|---|
| Eisenkot | 42% |
| Nobody | 26% |
| Netanyahu | 22% |
| Don’t know | 10% |
