Political Snapshot
Madad Poll
Seat Projections & Public Opinion · July 15, 2026
851 respondents
Sampling error ±3.5% (95% confidence)
Sampling error ±3.5% (95% confidence)
Madad Poll — Shmuel Rosner & Noah Slepkov · In partnership with Project Midgam (Dr. Ariel Ayalon), Askaria (Dudi Dror), and StatNet (Yosef Makhleda). Additional data: Hive. Statistical consultant: Prof. David Steinberg.
The poll was conducted among 851 respondents with a maximum sampling error of ±3.5%. Field date: July 14, 2026. Elections set for October 27, 2026.
The poll was conducted among 851 respondents with a maximum sampling error of ±3.5%. Field date: July 14, 2026. Elections set for October 27, 2026.
Seat Projections
Knesset Seats (out of 120)
This week’s projection and change from last week. Likud regains the top spot at 22; Yashar! falls 2 to 21. Hendel-Tropper (Reservists) crosses the threshold for the first time — 4 seats.
Likud
22—
Yashar! (Eisenkot)
21▼2
B’Yachad (Bennett)
15—
The Democrats
11▲1
Israel Beitanu
10—
United Torah Judaism
8—
Shas
7▼1
Otzma Yehudit
7▼1
Religious Zionists
6▲1
Hadash-Ta’al
5▼1
Ra’am
4▼1
Hendel-Tropper NEW
4
Below the electoral threshold: Balad 2.0% · Blue & White 0.8% · Makom LaKulanu 0.8%.
Bloc Calculation
Coalition vs. Opposition
Netanyahu Coalition
50
Opposition & Others
69
MAJORITY
Majority threshold: 61 seats. Hendel-Tropper (4) is counted in the opposition bloc.
Voter Mapping
Where Are Voters Right Now?
Distribution of voters by degree of commitment (excluding “won’t vote”).
Certain coalition voters · 28%
Between the blocs · 7%
Undecided between blocs · 5%
Certain opposition voters · 41%
Between the blocs · 7%
Undecided between blocs · 5%
Certain opposition voters · 41%
Poll of Polls
Weighted Average of All Media Polls
| Party | Seats |
|---|---|
| Likud | 25 |
| Yashar! (Eisenkot) | 22 |
| B’Yachad (Bennett) | 15 |
| The Democrats | 10 |
| Shas | 9 |
| Israel Beitanu | 9 |
| Otzma Yehudit | 8 |
| United Torah Judaism | 8 |
| Ra’am | 5 |
| Hadash-Ta’al | 5 |
| Religious Zionists | 4 |
Prime Minister
Who Is Fit to Be Prime Minister?
| Candidate | Last Week | This Week |
|---|---|---|
| Eisenkot | 46% | 44% |
| Netanyahu | 36% | 38% |
| Don’t know | 18% | 18% |
Military & Law
Chief of Staff on the Anti-Arrest Law
IDF Chief of Staff Zamir wrote to Netanyahu that the law intended to prevent arrests of Haredi draft evaders “does not align with IDF needs,” registering strong opposition. What is closer to your position?
| Total | Coalition | All Others | |
|---|---|---|---|
| It was his duty to warn against the law | 53% | 24% | 74% |
| Improper political interference by the Chief of Staff | 29% | 62% | 12% |
| Don’t know | 18% | 14% | 14% |
Pre-Election
Report Card on the Outgoing Government
This week elections were confirmed for October 27, meaning the government will complete four full years. Overall, was it…
| Total | Coalition | All Others | |
|---|---|---|---|
| A bad government | 64% | 16% | 80% |
| A good government | 28% | 76% | 11% |
| Don’t know | 8% | 8% | 9% |
