Madad Poll
Seat Projections & Public Opinion · July 21, 2026
Sampling error ±3.5% (95% confidence)
The poll was conducted among 988 respondents with a maximum sampling error of ±3.5%. Field date: July 20, 2026.
Knesset Seats (out of 120)
This week’s projection and change from last week. Likud falls to 21, tying with Yashar! again. Shas and Hadash-Ta’al each gain one seat; Ra’am climbs to 5.
Coalition vs. Opposition
Majority threshold: 61 seats. The coalition bloc has fallen below 50 seats for the first time.
Where Are Voters Right Now?
Distribution of voters by degree of commitment (excluding “won’t vote”).
Between the blocs · 5%
Undecided between blocs · 14%
Certain opposition voters · 48%
Weighted Average of All Media Polls
The poll-of-polls coalition bloc reaches 53 — all other polls together show the coalition slightly stronger than the Madad Poll alone.
| Party | Seats (avg.) |
|---|---|
| Likud | 25 |
| Yashar! (Eisenkot) | 23 |
| B’Yachad (Bennett) | 14 |
| Israel Beitanu | 10 |
| The Democrats | 10 |
Coalition bloc in poll of polls: 53 seats — still short of majority.
Proportion of Undecided Voters by Party
Among supporters of each party: share who report being undecided or leaning elsewhere.
| Party | Undecided / Wavering |
|---|---|
| Hendel-Tropper | 72% |
| B’Yachad (Bennett) | 45% |
| Otzma Yehudit | 35% |
| Yashar! (Eisenkot) | 34% |
| Shas | 34% |
| Israel Beitanu | 23% |
| United Torah Judaism | 22% |
| The Democrats | 21% |
| Likud | 20% |
Inside The Democrats: A 350-Voter Focus Group
An in-depth panel of 350 current Democrats voters examines where they came from, how firm they are, and what they think will happen.
Who Is Fit to Be Prime Minister?
| Candidate | Last Week | This Week |
|---|---|---|
| Eisenkot | 44% | 47% ▲3 |
| Netanyahu | 38% | 35% ▼3 |
| Don’t know | 18% | 18% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Bennett | 43% |
| Netanyahu | 40% |
| Don’t know | 17% |
Who Do You Think Will Win the Elections?
| Answer | Share |
|---|---|
| The Change camp (opposition) | 31% |
| The Coalition | 28% |
| Nobody / unclear result | 24% |
| Don’t know | 17% |
Iran and Trump
| Answer | Share |
|---|---|
| Yes, Israel should renew the war | 45% |
| No | — |
| Don’t know / other | 55% |
| Description | Share |
|---|---|
| He’s improvising, has no real plan | 65% |
| He knows what he wants and is executing a plan | 16% |
| Don’t know | 19% |
Fear That Netanyahu Will Provoke a Security Incident
Do you fear that Netanyahu will deliberately provoke a security or political crisis in order to prevent or disrupt the elections?
| Answer | Share |
|---|---|
| Yes, I fear he will | 48% |
| No, I don’t fear this | 43% |
| Don’t know | 9% |
Should Parties Hold Primaries Before the Election?
57% of the overall public say parties should hold membership primaries. Support for primaries by party of respondent:
| Party voters | Support for primaries |
|---|---|
| The Democrats | 77% |
| Yashar! (Eisenkot) | 66% |
| Likud | 58% |
