Political Snapshot
Madad Poll
Seat Projections & Public Opinion · July 8, 2026
956 respondents
Sampling error ±3.4% (95% confidence)
Sampling error ±3.4% (95% confidence)
Madad Poll — Shmuel Rosner & Noah Slepkov · In partnership with Project Midgam (Dr. Ariel Ayalon), Askaria (Dudi Dror), and StatNet (Yosef Makhleda). Additional data: Hive. Statistical consultant: Prof. David Steinberg.
The poll was conducted among 956 respondents with a maximum sampling error of ±3.4%.
The poll was conducted among 956 respondents with a maximum sampling error of ±3.4%.
Seat Projections
Knesset Seats (out of 120)
This week’s projection and change from last week. For the first time, Yashar! overtakes Likud — jumping 3 to 23 seats.
Yashar! (Eisenkot)
23▲3
Likud
22▲1
B’Yachad (Bennett)
15▼2
Israel Beitanu
10—
The Democrats
10▼1
Shas
8▼1
Otzma Yehudit
8—
United Torah Judaism
8—
Hadash-Ta’al
6—
Religious Zionists
5—
Ra’am
5—
Below the electoral threshold: Hendel-Tropper (Reservists) 2.2% · Balad 1.7% · Blue & White 2.1%.
Bloc Calculation
Coalition vs. Opposition
Netanyahu Coalition
51
Change Bloc (Bennett–Golan)
58
Change + Ra’am
63
MAJORITY
Majority threshold: 61 seats.
Judicial System
Obligation to Comply with the Supreme Court
Must the government comply in all cases with Supreme Court rulings?
| Total | Coalition | All Others | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Must always comply | 62% | 9% | 73% |
| Does not need to always comply | 28% | 74% | 17% |
| Don’t know | 10% | 17% | 10% |
Prime Minister
Who Is Fit to Be Prime Minister?
| Candidate | % |
|---|---|
| Eisenkot | 46% |
| Netanyahu | 36% |
| Don’t know | 18% |
Haredi Conscription
The Anti-Arrest Law for Draft Evaders
For or against a law that would prevent the arrest of young Haredi men who did not report for induction?
| Total | Coalition | All Others | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Against | 56% | 21% | 72% |
| For | 29% | 68% | 19% |
| Don’t know | 15% | 11% | 9% |
Will the Haredi draft laws affect your vote?
| Total | Coalition | All Others | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Won’t affect — already decided | 53% | 61% | 39% |
| Definitely will affect | 20% | 7% | 29% |
| May affect | 17% | 21% | 21% |
| Don’t know | 9% | 11% | 11% |
Election Integrity
Will the Losing Side Accept the Results?
| Total | Coalition | All Others | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will accept | 47% | 78% | 33% |
| Will not accept | 36% | 8% | 41% |
| Don’t know | 17% | 14% | 26% |
| Total | Coalition | All Others | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will accept | 51% | 19% | 59% |
| Will not accept | 32% | 63% | 21% |
| Don’t know | 17% | 18% | 20% |
