Political Snapshot · October 14, 2026
Madad Poll — Weekly Survey
Madad Poll — Shmuel Rosner, Noah Slepkov · with The Sample Project (Dr. Ariel Ayalon),
Askaria (Dudi Dror) and Statnet (Yosef Makleda). Additional data: Hive. Statistical advisory: Prof. David Steinberg.
1,018 respondents · Max sampling error ±3.1 percentage points (95% confidence). Field dates: October 13, 2026.
Knesset Seat Projections
Projected Seats (of 120)
Change vs. last week in parentheses. The Reservists party (Handel-Zelikha) crosses the electoral threshold for the first time, entering the Knesset with 4 seats. Likud falls 2 seats to 18.
| Party |
Last Week |
This Week |
Change |
| Yashar! (Eisenkot) |
20 |
20 |
— |
| Likud |
20 |
18 |
▼2 |
| B’Yachad (Bennett) |
12 |
12 |
— |
| The Democrats |
10 |
9 |
▼1 |
| Joint List |
9 |
9 |
— |
| Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman) |
8 |
9 |
▲1 |
| Otzma Yehudit (Ben-Gvir) |
8 |
8 |
— |
| United Torah Judaism |
8 |
8 |
— |
| Shas |
7 |
7 |
— |
| Religious Zionism (Smotrich) |
7 |
6 |
▼1 |
| Ra’am (Abbas) |
6 |
6 |
— |
| The Reservists (Handel-Zelikha) ★ |
2.9% |
4 |
★ New |
| Amcha Israel (Winters) |
5 |
4 |
▼1 |
★ The Reservists cross the 3.25% electoral threshold for the first time. Below-threshold parties: HaTzibbur HaHaredi (Leitner) 1.1%, Blue & White (Gantz) 1.2%.
Bloc Breakdown
The Four Political Blocs
The Reservists’ entry into the Knesset adds 4 seats to the “between blocs” category. The Netanyahu coalition falls 4 seats to 51. A majority requires 61 seats.
Netanyahu Coalition
51
▼4 from last week
Change Bloc
50
— unchanged
Arab Parties
15
— unchanged
Between Blocs
4
▲4 (Reservists enter)
Critical Analysis
What if Amcha and the Reservists lose their seats?
Both parties hold exactly 4 seats each — near the 3.25% threshold. This simulation shows how seats would redistribute if both fell below the threshold (Badensht method).
| Party |
This Week |
Simulation |
| Yashar! |
20 |
22 |
| Likud |
18 |
17 |
| B’Yachad |
12 |
13 |
| The Democrats |
9 |
11 |
| Joint List |
9 |
10 |
| Yisrael Beiteinu |
9 |
10 |
| United Torah Judaism |
8 |
8 |
| Otzma Yehudit |
8 |
9 |
| Shas |
7 |
7 |
| Religious Zionism |
6 |
7 |
| Ra’am |
6 |
6 |
| The Reservists |
4 |
0 |
| Amcha Israel |
4 |
0 |
| Bloc (simulation) |
This Week |
Simulation |
| Netanyahu Coalition |
51 |
48 |
| Change Bloc |
50 |
56 |
| Arab Parties |
15 |
16 |
| Between Blocs |
4 |
0 |
Undecided Voters
Undecided & Non-Leaning
| Total undecided, non-leaning voters |
4.3% |
| Among them — certain to vote |
1.6% |
Voter Turnout Intent
Will You Vote on Election Day?
Overall
|
Last Week |
This Week |
| Definitely voting |
76% |
75% |
| Fairly likely to vote |
17% |
17% |
| Not so likely to vote |
3% |
3% |
| Very unlikely to vote |
3% |
3% |
| Don’t know |
1% |
2% |
By Camp
|
Coalition |
Opposition |
Other |
| Definitely voting |
76% |
84% |
41% |
| Fairly likely |
19% |
14% |
15% |
| Not so likely |
4% |
2% |
7% |
| Very unlikely |
1% |
1% |
25% |
| Don’t know |
0% |
0% |
12% |
Voter Loyalty
How Certain Are Voters to Stick with Their Party?
Most loyal voters
| Party |
Very certain |
Fairly certain |
| Shas |
82% |
15% |
| United Torah Judaism |
74% |
17% |
| Likud |
61% |
29% |
Least loyal voters
| Party |
Very certain |
Fairly certain |
| B’Yachad (Bennett) |
16% |
69% |
| The Reservists |
33% |
41% |
| Amcha Israel |
35% |
40% |
Prime Minister Preference
Netanyahu vs. Eisenkot for Prime Minister
| Candidate |
Last Week |
This Week |
| Netanyahu |
40% |
38% |
| Eisenkot |
44% |
45% |
| Don’t know |
16% |
17% |
This Week in Politics
Should Netanyahu Fire His Advisor Urich Over Qatar Ties?
Following reports this week about leaked correspondence by PM advisor Yonatan Urich and his deep ties to Qatar: should Netanyahu fire Urich?
Overall
| Should fire Urich |
47% |
| Should not fire Urich |
16% |
| Don’t know |
38% |
By Camp
|
Coalition |
Opposition |
Other |
| Should fire |
28% |
70% |
42% |
| Should not fire |
22% |
9% |
11% |
| Don’t know |
50% |
21% |
47% |
Likud voters only
| Should fire |
33% |
| Should not fire |
21% |
| Don’t know |
46% |
Coalition Scenarios
Government Backed by Arab Parties?
If it turns out that the only way to replace Netanyahu is to form a government with the support or abstention of Arab parties, would you be…
Overall
| In favor of such a government |
40% |
| Against such a government |
43% |
| Don’t know |
18% |
By Sector
|
Jewish |
Arab |
| In favor |
30% |
81% |
| Against |
49% |
13% |
| Don’t know |
20% |
6% |
By Camp
|
Coalition |
Opposition |
Other |
| In favor |
6% |
61% |
18% |
| Against |
80% |
20% |
43% |
| Don’t know |
13% |
19% |
38% |
Opposition voters by party
|
Yashar! |
B’Yachad |
Yisrael Beiteinu |
The Democrats |
| In favor |
57% |
51% |
46% |
89% |
| Against |
20% |
27% |
27% |
4% |
| Don’t know |
23% |
22% |
27% |
7% |
Coalition Scenarios
Right-Wing Government with Ultra-Orthodox Draft Exemption?
If it turns out that the only way to form a right-wing government is with Haredi party support and passage of a draft exemption law, would you be…
Overall
| In favor of such a government |
30% |
| Against such a government |
54% |
| Don’t know |
16% |
By Sector
|
Non-Haredi Jews |
Haredi Jews |
| In favor |
27% |
87% |
| Against |
57% |
2% |
| Don’t know |
16% |
11% |
By Camp
|
Coalition |
Opposition |
Other |
| In favor |
60% |
11% |
25% |
| Against |
21% |
79% |
50% |
| Don’t know |
19% |
11% |
25% |
Non-Haredi coalition voters by party
|
Likud |
Religious Zionism |
Otzma Yehudit |
Amcha Israel |
| In favor |
59% |
56% |
52% |
3% |
| Against |
23% |
13% |
27% |
77% |
| Don’t know |
19% |
31% |
22% |
20% |
Social Cohesion
If My Camp Loses the Election…
Which of the following is closest to your view if your political camp loses the election?
Overall
| I will be disappointed, but there’s nothing I can do |
57% |
| I will mobilize to change the situation |
15% |
| I will consider whether I or my family might leave Israel |
13% |
| None of the above / Don’t know |
16% |
By Camp
|
Coalition |
Opposition |
Other |
| Disappointed, nothing I can do |
73% |
49% |
43% |
| Will mobilize to change situation |
10% |
17% |
5% |
| Would consider leaving Israel |
3% |
25% |
6% |
| None / Don’t know |
14% |
9% |
46% |
Opposition voters by party
|
The Democrats |
Yashar! |
B’Yachad |
Yisrael Beiteinu |
| Disappointed |
26% |
53% |
54% |
50% |
| Mobilize to change |
16% |
9% |
23% |
15% |
| Would consider leaving |
52% |
26% |
21% |
20% |
| None / Don’t know |
6% |
11% |
1% |
15% |
By religiosity
|
Secular |
Traditional |
Religious |
Haredi |
| Disappointed |
49% |
63% |
69% |
71% |
| Mobilize to change |
14% |
8% |
15% |
8% |
| Would consider leaving |
26% |
6% |
5% |
2% |
| None / Don’t know |
11% |
23% |
11% |
19% |
Striking finding: 52% of Democrats voters say they would consider leaving Israel if their camp loses, compared to just 3% of coalition voters.
