Political Snapshot · October 19, 2026
Madad Poll — Weekly Survey
Madad Poll — Shmuel Rosner, Noah Slepkov · with The Sample Project (Dr. Ariel Ayalon),
Askaria (Dudi Dror) and Statnet (Yosef Makleda). Additional data: Hive. Statistical advisory: Prof. David Steinberg.
1,016 respondents · Max sampling error ±3.1 percentage points (95% confidence). Field dates: October 18, 2026.
Knesset Seat Projections
Projected Seats (of 120)
Change vs. last week. B’Yachad (Bennett) surges +2 to 14 seats — the biggest weekly gain. Yisrael Beiteinu, Otzma Yehudit, and United Torah Judaism each fall by 1; Religious Zionism rises 1.
| Party |
Last Week |
This Week |
Change |
| Yashar! (Eisenkot) |
20 |
20 |
— |
| Likud |
18 |
18 |
— |
| B’Yachad (Bennett) ★ |
12 |
14 |
▲2 |
| The Democrats |
9 |
9 |
— |
| Joint List |
9 |
9 |
— |
| Yisrael Beiteinu |
9 |
8 |
▼1 |
| Religious Zionism (Smotrich) |
6 |
7 |
▲1 |
| United Torah Judaism |
8 |
7 |
▼1 |
| Otzma Yehudit (Ben-Gvir) |
8 |
7 |
▼1 |
| Shas |
7 |
7 |
— |
| Ra’am (Abbas) |
6 |
6 |
— |
| The Reservists (Handel-Zelikha) |
4 |
4 |
— |
| Amcha Israel (Winters) |
4 |
4 |
— |
Below threshold: HaTzibbur HaHaredi (Leitner) ~1%, Blue & White (Gantz) 0.6%.
Caution Zone
Dangerously Close to the Electoral Threshold
Both parties are above the 3.25% threshold — but only barely. A small shift could erase their 4 seats each and change the map dramatically.
| Party |
Vote Share |
Margin above threshold |
| The Reservists (Handel-Zelikha) |
3.4% |
+0.15% above threshold |
| Amcha Israel (Winters) |
3.9% |
+0.65% above threshold |
Bloc Breakdown
Bloc Flip: Change Bloc Now Leads Coalition
For the first time this season, the opposition “change bloc” (51) overtakes the Netanyahu-Winters coalition (50) — driven by B’Yachad’s surge. Neither bloc is anywhere near the 61-seat majority needed.
Change Bloc ★
51
▲1 — leads for first time
Netanyahu + Winters
50
▼1 from last week
Arab Parties
15
— unchanged
Between Blocs (Handel)
4
— unchanged
Undecided Voters
Undecided & Non-Leaning
| Total undecided, non-leaning voters |
3.9% |
| Among them — certain to vote |
2.4% |
Voter Turnout Intent
Will You Vote on Election Day?
Overall
|
Last Week |
This Week |
| Definitely voting |
75% |
77% |
| Fairly likely to vote |
17% |
16% |
| Not so likely |
3% |
3% |
| Very unlikely to vote |
3% |
3% |
| Don’t know |
2% |
1% |
By Camp
|
Coalition |
Opposition |
Other |
| Definitely voting |
78% |
82% |
51% |
| Fairly likely |
18% |
13% |
18% |
| Not so likely |
3% |
2% |
9% |
| Very unlikely |
0% |
3% |
15% |
| Don’t know |
1% |
0% |
6% |
Voter Loyalty
How Certain Are Voters to Stick with Their Party?
Most loyal voters
| Party |
Very certain |
Fairly certain |
| United Torah Judaism |
78% |
18% |
| Likud |
72% |
23% |
| The Democrats |
62% |
30% |
Least loyal voters
| Party |
Very certain |
Fairly certain |
| Amcha Israel (Winters) |
17% |
56% |
| Otzma Yehudit |
26% |
42% |
| B’Yachad (Bennett) |
33% |
54% |
Prime Minister Preference
Netanyahu vs. Eisenkot for Prime Minister
| Candidate |
Last Week |
This Week |
| Netanyahu |
38% |
38% |
| Eisenkot |
45% |
46% |
| Don’t know |
17% |
16% |
Coalition Scenarios
What Kind of Government Do You Want After the Election?
Overall
| Full right-wing government |
31% |
| Full opposition government |
23% |
| Broad unity government |
33% |
| Something else |
6% |
| Don’t know |
7% |
By Camp
|
Coalition |
Opposition |
Other |
| Full right-wing |
68% |
6% |
32% |
| Full opposition |
1% |
40% |
8% |
| Broad unity |
20% |
39% |
40% |
| Something else |
4% |
8% |
7% |
| Don’t know |
7% |
8% |
13% |
Deadlock Scenario
If No Bloc Can Form a Government…
If no political bloc can form a government and these are the only two options, what would you prefer?
Overall
| New elections |
52% |
| Unity government, Netanyahu/Eisenkot rotation |
32% |
| Don’t know |
16% |
By Sector
|
Jewish |
Arab |
| New elections |
49% |
67% |
| Unity with rotation |
33% |
24% |
| Don’t know |
18% |
9% |
By Camp
|
Coalition |
Opposition |
Other |
| New elections |
46% |
60% |
34% |
| Unity with rotation |
37% |
25% |
40% |
| Don’t know |
17% |
15% |
26% |
Security and Politics
Pre-Election Military Strike — Necessary or Political?
If Israel launches a military strike before the elections, would you…
Overall
| Trust the government — a necessary move |
33% |
| Not trust the government — a political move |
47% |
| Depends on circumstances / Don’t know |
20% |
By Camp
|
Coalition |
Opposition |
Other |
| Trust — necessary move |
70% |
8% |
35% |
| Don’t trust — political move |
9% |
76% |
30% |
| Depends / Don’t know |
21% |
16% |
35% |