Political Snapshot · October 21, 2026
Madad Poll — Weekly Survey
Madad Poll — Shmuel Rosner, Noah Slepkov · with The Sample Project (Dr. Ariel Ayalon),
Askaria (Dudi Dror) and Statnet (Yosef Makleda). Additional data: Hive. Statistical advisory: Prof. David Steinberg.
1,084 respondents · Max sampling error ±3.0 percentage points (95% confidence). Field dates: October 20, 2026.
Knesset Seat Projections
Projected Seats (of 120)
Change vs. Monday (Oct 19). Likud and the Democrats each +1; Religious Zionism and UTJ each +1. Amcha-Winter falls below the 3.25% electoral threshold to 3.2% — projected to win zero seats.
| Party |
Monday |
Today |
Change |
| Yashar! (Eisenkot) |
20 |
20 |
— |
| Likud |
18 |
19 |
▲1 |
| B’Yachad (Bennett) |
14 |
14 |
— |
| The Democrats |
9 |
10 |
▲1 |
| Joint List |
9 |
9 |
— |
| Religious Zionism |
7 |
8 |
▲1 |
| United Torah Judaism |
7 |
8 |
▲1 |
| Yisrael Beiteinu |
8 |
8 |
— |
| Otzma Yehudit |
7 |
7 |
— |
| Shas |
7 |
7 |
— |
| Ra’am |
6 |
6 |
— |
| Hendel-Zelikha |
4 |
4 |
— |
| Amcha-Winter (below threshold) |
4 |
0 (3.2%) |
▼4 |
Electoral Threshold Watch (3.25%)
Amcha-Winter: 3.2% — currently below the threshold and projected at 0 seats. If they fall short on election day, their votes are redistributed to parties that pass.
Hendel-Zelikha: 3.6% — above the threshold but within the margin of error.
Coalition Blocs
Bloc Totals
The Change bloc extends its lead to 52 vs. 49 for Netanyahu’s coalition. Hendel-Zelikha (4) and Arab parties (15) remain outside either bloc.
Change Bloc
52
▲1 from Monday
Netanyahu Coalition
49
▼1 from Monday
Undecided Voters
Undecided
| Have not decided and not leaning toward any party |
2.9% |
| Of those — will definitely vote |
0.7% |
Voter Turnout Intent
Will you vote on election day?
|
Monday |
Today |
| Will definitely vote |
77% |
78% |
| Fairly certain I’ll vote |
16% |
15% |
| Not so certain |
3% |
2% |
| Probably won’t vote |
3% |
4% |
By camp: Coalition 79 / 17 / 1 / 3 · Opposition 85 / 13 / 2 / 0 · Other 43 / 18 / 7 / 30 (definitely / fairly certain / not so certain / probably won’t)
Voter Commitment by Party
Certainty to Vote for Their Party
Most Committed Voters
| Party |
Very certain |
Fairly certain |
| Shas |
84% |
12% |
| UTJ |
75% |
23% |
| Likud |
74% |
21% |
Least Committed Voters
| Party |
Very certain |
Fairly certain |
| Amcha |
22% |
31% |
| B’Yachad |
36% |
56% |
| The Reservists |
42% |
24% |
Prime Minister Preference
Who do you prefer as Prime Minister? (Netanyahu / Eisenkot)
|
Overall |
Coalition |
Opposition |
Other |
| Netanyahu |
38% |
86 |
6 |
33 |
| Eisenkot |
46% |
5 |
78 |
25 |
| Don’t know |
16% |
9 |
16 |
42 |
Haredi Military Draft
Who do you trust more to handle the haredi draft correctly?
|
Overall |
Coalition |
Opposition |
Other |
| Netanyahu’s coalition |
27% |
63 |
4 |
8 |
| Eisenkot’s coalition |
49% |
14 |
77 |
33 |
| Don’t know |
24% |
23 |
19 |
59 |
By sector (Netanyahu’s / Eisenkot’s / Don’t know): Non-haredi Jews 28/55/17 · Haredim 56/9/35 · Arabs 3/47/50.
By religiosity: Secular 15/77/8 · Traditional 34/41/25 · Religious 55/21/24 · Haredi 56/9/35.
Election Integrity
Are you worried about harm to election integrity?
|
Overall |
Coalition |
Opposition |
Other |
| Very worried |
24% |
19 |
30 |
16 |
| Somewhat worried |
35% |
31 |
36 |
28 |
| Not very worried |
14% |
19 |
12 |
13 |
| Not worried at all |
22% |
24 |
19 |
35 |
| Don’t know |
5% |
7 |
3 |
8 |
59% of respondents are worried (very + somewhat) about harm to election integrity. Opposition voters are more worried (66%) than coalition voters (50%).