Final Pre-Election Survey · October 23, 2026
Madad Poll — Final Survey
Madad Poll — Shmuel Rosner, Noah Slepkov · with The Sample Project (Dr. Ariel Ayalon),
Askaria (Dudi Dror) and Statnet (Yosef Makleda). Additional data: Hive. Statistical advisory: Prof. David Steinberg.
1,875 respondents · Max sampling error ±2.3 percentage points (95% confidence). Field dates: October 22–23, 2026.
Knesset Seat Projections
Projected Seats (of 120)
Change vs. Monday (Oct. 19). Yashar! surges +2 to 22 seats. Two parties below the 3.25% electoral threshold: Amcha-Winter (3.1%) and Reservists-Economic (3.0%), both projected at zero seats.
| Party |
Monday |
Wednesday |
Today |
Change |
| Yashar! (Eisenkot) |
20 |
20 |
22 |
▲2 |
| Likud |
18 |
19 |
19 |
▲1 |
| B’Yachad (Bennett) |
14 |
14 |
14 |
— |
| The Democrats |
9 |
10 |
10 |
▲1 |
| Joint List |
9 |
9 |
9 |
— |
| Religious Zionism |
7 |
8 |
8 |
▲1 |
| United Torah Judaism |
7 |
8 |
8 |
▲1 |
| Yisrael Beiteinu |
8 |
8 |
8 |
— |
| Otzma Yehudit |
7 |
8 |
8 |
▲1 |
| Shas |
7 |
7 |
7 |
— |
| Ra’am |
6 |
6 |
7 |
▲1 |
| Amcha-Winter (below threshold) |
4 |
0 (3.2%) |
0 (3.1%) |
▼4 |
| Reservists-Economic (below threshold) |
4 |
0 (3.0%) |
0 (3.0%) |
▼4 |
Threshold Scenarios
Bloc Totals by Threshold Scenario
Both Amcha-Winter (3.1%) and Reservists-Economic (3.0%) are currently projected below the 3.25% threshold. Whether they cross it will determine who can form a government.
Key scenario: If Amcha-Winter (Netanyahu coalition) crosses the threshold but the Reservists do not — the Netanyahu coalition leads 53–52 and Netanyahu is in position to form a government.
| Scenario |
Netanyahu Coalition |
Change Bloc |
Reservists |
Arabs |
| Neither crosses threshold (baseline) |
50 |
54 |
0 |
16 |
| Both cross threshold |
50 |
52 |
4 |
14 |
| Reservists cross, Amcha does not |
49 |
52 |
4 |
15 |
| Amcha crosses, Reservists do not |
53 |
52 |
0 |
15 |
Coalition Blocs (Baseline)
Bloc Totals
Change Bloc
54
▲3 from Monday
Arab Parties
16
▲1 from Monday
Reservists-Economic
0
3.0% — below threshold
Voter Turnout Intent
Will you vote on election day?
|
Wednesday |
Today |
| Will definitely vote |
78% |
82% |
| Fairly certain I’ll vote |
15% |
12% |
| Not so certain |
2% |
2% |
| Probably won’t vote |
4% |
3% |
By camp (definitely / fairly certain / not so certain / probably won’t): Coalition 83/14/2/0 · Opposition 88/9/1/2 · Other 58/19/6/10 · Arabs 80/10/2/8.
Prime Minister Preference
Who do you prefer as Prime Minister? (Netanyahu / Eisenkot)
|
Overall |
Coalition |
Opposition |
Other |
Arabs |
| Netanyahu |
37% |
84 |
6 |
39 |
6 |
| Eisenkot |
47% |
4 |
86 |
24 |
65 |
| Don’t know |
16% |
12 |
8 |
37 |
29 |
Days Before the Election
As you think about the remaining days until elections, which describes you?
|
Overall |
Coalition |
Opposition |
Other |
Arabs |
| No chance I’ll change my mind |
60% |
71 |
52 |
27 |
79 |
| Might switch to another party within my bloc |
28% |
21 |
41 |
31 |
9 |
| Might switch to a party in the other bloc |
3% |
3 |
8 |
— |
1 |
| Might end up not voting |
4% |
2 |
1 |
12 |
10 |
| Don’t know |
5% |
3 |
— |
22 |
1 |
Brittle Parties
“Might Switch” — Most At Risk
| Party |
Other bloc |
Within bloc |
| Amcha-Winter |
10% |
45% |
| Reservists-Economic |
9% |
26% |
| Yisrael Beiteinu |
6% |
46% |
| B’Yachad |
5% |
49% |
| Religious Zionism |
4% |
32% |
Solid Parties
“Will Definitely Vote” — Most Loyal
| Party |
Very certain |
Fairly certain |
| UTJ |
82% |
13% |
| Shas |
75% |
16% |
| The Democrats |
70% |
26% |
Deadlock Scenario
If neither bloc has a majority of 61 — which option is preferable?
|
Overall |
Coalition |
Opposition |
Other |
Arabs |
| New elections |
34% |
45 |
22 |
26 |
47 |
| Change bloc minority govt. (Arab abstention) |
26% |
5 |
48 |
7 |
28 |
| Unity govt. Netanyahu–Eisenkot (rotation) |
18% |
25 |
12 |
38 |
8 |
| Change bloc govt. with Haredi parties |
5% |
8 |
4 |
3 |
— |
| Don’t know |
17% |
17 |
14 |
25 |
14 |
Election Expectations
Regardless of how you’ll vote — who do you think will win?
Tracking from July 21 → October 6 → today. Expectations of a Change bloc victory have rebounded to July levels after falling in early October.
|
Jul. 21 |
Oct. 6 |
Today |
Coalition |
Opposition |
Other |
Arabs |
| Netanyahu coalition will win |
28% |
29% |
25% |
57 |
7 |
24 |
12 |
| Change bloc will win |
31% |
21% |
31% |
4 |
48 |
12 |
49 |
| Neither bloc will have a majority |
24% |
33% |
24% |
18 |
24 |
37 |
29 |
