The Madad Poll
Political Snapshot · October 7, 2026
1,263 respondents
Margin of error ±2.8% (95% confidence)
Madad Poll — Shmuel Rosner, Noah Slepkov · with Project HaMidgam (Dr. Ariel Ayalon), Iscria (Dudy Dror) and StatNet (Yosef Makhlada). Additional data: Hive. Statistical adviser: Prof. David Steinberg.
Survey of 1,263 respondents. Average national margin of error ±2.8 percentage points (95% confidence). Survey date: October 6, 2026.
Seat Projections
Projected Knesset seats this week vs. last week (out of 120). Yashar! falls 1 to 20; Likud rises 1 to 20 — they are tied for first place. B’Yachad rises 1 to 12; The Democrats fall 1 to 10. Israel Beitenu falls 1 to 8; Ra’am rises 1 to 6. Amcha Israel (Winter) holds 5 seats above the electoral threshold; the Reservists–Economic party (Hendel-Zlicha) falls below it.
Below the electoral threshold: The Reservists–Economic (Hendel-Zlicha) 2.9% · Haredi Public Party (Leitner) 1.1% · Blue and White (Gantz) 0.8%.
Total wasted votes: 5.4%. Undecided (no lean): 4.1%.
Bloc Count
The Four Blocs
Netanyahu Coalition
55
▲1
Knesset majority threshold: 61 seats. Less than three weeks to Election Day: the coalition gains 1, the Change bloc falls 2, Arab parties gain 1.
Critical Watch
Below the Threshold & Undecided
Less than three weeks to Election Day: nearly 10% of voters are currently supporting parties below the electoral threshold or have yet to decide.
| |
Last Week |
This Week |
| Total undecided (no party lean) |
3.7% |
4.1% |
| Voting for parties below the threshold |
5.9% |
5.4% |
Prime Minister
Who Do You Prefer as Prime Minister?
| Candidate |
Last Week |
This Week |
| Netanyahu |
38% |
40% |
| Eisenkot |
44% |
44% |
| Don’t know |
17% |
16% |
October 7
Three Years Later: Could It Happen Again?
Three years after October 7, do you think an event like it could or could not happen again?
| |
Overall |
| Could happen again |
63% |
| Could not happen again |
20% |
| Don’t know |
17% |
By Political Camp — not a partisan position: majorities across all camps agree
| |
Coalition |
Opposition |
Other |
| Could happen again |
66% |
59% |
64% |
| Could not happen again |
14% |
25% |
18% |
| Don’t know |
20% |
16% |
18% |
October 7
Who Won the War in Gaza?
Three years after October 7, who do you think won the war in Gaza?
| |
Overall |
| Israel |
37% |
| Hamas |
13% |
| Nobody / Don’t know |
50% |
Among 2022 coalition voters — The political implication: a quarter of coalition voters from four years ago have since left. You can see why.
| |
Stayed in coalition |
Left the coalition |
| Israel won |
63% |
39% |
| Hamas won |
6% |
13% |
| Nobody won / Don’t know |
31% |
49% |
October 7
Which Inquiry Commission for October 7?
Which of the two main proposals for an October 7 inquiry commission do you support more?
| |
Overall |
| State commission appointed by the Supreme Court President (standard procedure) |
54% |
| “National-state” commission appointed by the Knesset (coalition proposal) |
33% |
| Don’t know |
13% |
Among 2022 coalition voters — The partisan divide
| |
Stayed in coalition |
Left the coalition |
| Supreme Court President commission |
10% |
54% |
| Knesset-appointed commission |
76% |
33% |
| Don’t know |
14% |
13% |