Political Snapshot
Madad Poll
Seat Projections & Public Opinion · September 16, 2026
886 respondents
Sampling error ±3.3% (95% confidence)
Sampling error ±3.3% (95% confidence)
Madad Poll — Shmuel Rosner & Noah Slepkov · In partnership with Project Midgam (Dr. Ariel Ayalon), Askaria (Dudi Dror), and StatNet (Yosef Makhleda). Additional data: Hive. Statistical consultants: Prof. David Steinberg.
The poll was conducted among 886 respondents, with an average national sampling error of ±3.3 percentage points. Field date: September 15, 2026.
The poll was conducted among 886 respondents, with an average national sampling error of ±3.3 percentage points. Field date: September 15, 2026.
Seat Projections
Knesset Seats (out of 120)
This week’s projection and change from last week. Religious Zionists jumps 2 to 8; Ofer Winter rises 2 to 6; Likud falls 1 to 18.
Yashar!
22—
Likud
18▼1
B’Yachad (Bennett)
12▼1
The Democrats
10—
Religious Zionists
8▲2
Joint List
8—
Otzma Yehudit
8—
Israel Beitanu
8—
United Torah Judaism
7▼1
Shas
7—
Ofer Winter
6▲2
Ra’am
6—
Below the electoral threshold: The Reservists (Hendel-Zelicha) 3.1% · Haredi Public Party (Leitner) 1.8% · Blue and White (Gantz) 0.8%.
Total wasted votes: 6.2% · Undecided (not leaning to any party): 4.7%.
Total wasted votes: 6.2% · Undecided (not leaning to any party): 4.7%.
Bloc Calculation
The Four Blocs
Netanyahu Coalition
54
Between the Blocs
0
Change Bloc
52
Arab Parties
14
Majority threshold: 61 seats. The coalition holds a narrow lead at 54, with the Change Bloc at 52. No party between the blocs crossed the electoral threshold.
Scenario
If the Reservists (Hendel-Zelicha) Cross the Threshold
| Party | Seats |
|---|---|
| Yashar! | 21 |
| Likud | 17 |
| B’Yachad (Bennett) | 12 |
| The Democrats | 10 |
| Otzma Yehudit | 8 |
| Joint List (Hadash-Ta’al-Balad) | 8 |
| Israel Beitanu | 8 |
| United Torah Judaism | 7 |
| Shas | 7 |
| Religious Zionists (with Zehut) | 7 |
| Ofer Winter | 6 |
| Ra’am | 5 |
| The Reservists (Hendel-Zelicha) | 4 |
Netanyahu Coalition
52
Between the Blocs
4
Change Bloc
51
Arab Parties
13
Majority threshold: 61 seats. In this scenario, no bloc reaches a majority.
Voter Mapping
Which Bloc Will You Vote For on Election Day?
“In your estimate, on election day, which bloc’s party will you vote for?”
| Bloc | % |
|---|---|
| Opposition bloc | 47% |
| Coalition bloc (including Winter’s party) | 30% |
| Still undecided between parties in multiple blocs | 8% |
| Between the blocs (Blue and White, Reservists, other non-aligned party) | 4% |
| Don’t know | 10% |
| Bloc | Jews | Arabs |
|---|---|---|
| Opposition bloc | 38% | 84% |
| Coalition bloc (including Winter’s party) | 37% | 2% |
| Still undecided between multiple blocs | 10% | 3% |
| Between the blocs | 4% | 1% |
| Don’t know | 11% | 9% |
Prime Minister
Who Is Fit to Be Prime Minister?
| Candidate | Last Week | This Week |
|---|---|---|
| Eisenkot | 46% | 45% |
| Netanyahu | 35% | 36% |
| Don’t know | 19% | 19% |
| Candidate | Total | Coalition Supporters | Between Blocs | Zionist Opposition | Arabs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eisenkot | 45% | 3% | 41% | 87% | 62% |
| Netanyahu | 36% | 83% | 21% | 3% | 10% |
| Don’t know | 19% | 14% | 37% | 10% | 28% |
| Candidate | Total | Coalition | Between Blocs | Zionist Opposition | Arabs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu | 34% | 81% | 18% | 2% | 10% |
| Eisenkot | 30% | 2% | 4% | 50% | 56% |
| Bennett | 14% | 2% | 33% | 30% | 5% |
| Liberman | 8% | 3% | 27% | 12% | 7% |
| Don’t know | 14% | 12% | 18% | 5% | 22% |
Security & Media
The NZA Film — Belief and Prevention
| Total | Coalition | Between Blocs | Zionist Opposition | Arabs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don’t believe it | 68% | 89% | 84% | 75% | 14% |
| Don’t know | 19% | 7% | 8% | 19% | 41% |
| Believe it | 13% | 4% | 8% | 6% | 45% |
| Total | Coalition | Between Blocs | Zionist Opposition | Arabs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, try to prevent | 48% | 73% | 34% | 43% | 7% |
| No, don’t prevent | 32% | 15% | 44% | 43% | 54% |
| Don’t know | 20% | 12% | 22% | 14% | 40% |
Security & Budget
A Supplementary Defense Budget
The defense establishment is demanding an urgent budget supplement. In your view, what should be done?
| Total | Coalition | Between Blocs | All Opposition | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Approve the supplement by cutting coalition budgets | 38% | 28% | 45% | 45% |
| Approve the supplement without cutting other budgets | 32% | 49% | 36% | 22% |
| Do not approve a defense supplement | 15% | 7% | 15% | 21% |
| Don’t know | 15% | 16% | 4% | 12% |
