The Madad Poll
Political Snapshot · September 2, 2026
Margin of error ±3.4% (95% confidence)
Survey of 940 respondents (566 non-Haredi Jews, 224 Haredim, 150 Arabs). Average national margin of error ±3.4 percentage points (95% confidence). Survey dates: September 1–2, 2026.
Seat Projections
Projected Knesset seats this week vs. last week (out of 120). Yashar! falls 2 to 22, Likud rises 2 to 21, and Ofer Winter enters the Knesset for the first time with 4 seats.
Total wasted votes: 7.2%.
The Three Blocs
Knesset majority threshold: 61 seats. Both major blocs are tied at 53 — neither holds a majority.
Gantz-Ardan Merger + Otzma-Religious Zionism Merger
The “Between the Blocs” party (Gantz and Ardan) falls below the electoral threshold at 0.9%.
| Party | Seats |
|---|---|
| Yashar! | 23 |
| Likud (Netanyahu) | 22 |
| B’Yachad (Bennett and Lapid) | 11 |
| Otzma + Religious Zionism (merged) | 11 |
| The Democrats | 10 |
| Joint List (Hadash-Ta’al-Balad) | 9 |
| Israel Beitanu (Lieberman) | 9 |
| United Torah Judaism | 8 |
| Shas (Deri) | 7 |
| Ofer Winter | 5 |
| Ra’am (Abbas) | 5 |
Majority threshold: 61 seats. Neither bloc reaches a majority.
Where do Otzma + Religious Zionism voters go?
| Voter behavior | All voters | Religious Zionists voters | Otzma voters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stay with merged list | 73% | 86% | 63% |
| Stay in coalition (different party) | 18% | 10% | 24% |
| Switch to opposition / between blocs | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Become undecided / non-voters | 6% | 0% | 11% |
Yashar-Together Merger (+ Gantz-Ardan below threshold)
“Between the Blocs” party (Gantz and Ardan) falls below the electoral threshold at 0.9%.
| Party | Seats |
|---|---|
| Yashar + Together (Eisenkot + Bennett, merged) | 31 |
| Likud (Netanyahu) | 22 |
| The Democrats | 11 |
| Israel Beitanu (Lieberman) | 10 |
| Joint List (Hadash-Ta’al-Balad) | 9 |
| Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir) | 7 |
| United Torah Judaism | 7 |
| Shas (Deri) | 7 |
| Religious Zionism + Otzma (Smotrich-Feiglin) | 6 |
| Ofer Winter | 5 |
| Ra’am (Abbas) | 5 |
Majority threshold: 61 seats. Neither bloc reaches a majority.
Where do Yashar + Together voters go?
| Voter behavior | All voters | Yashar voters | Together voters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stay with merged party | 76% | 79% | 70% |
| Stay in opposition (different Change Bloc party) | 10% | 9% | 12% |
| Switch to coalition | 3% | 1% | 5% |
| Become undecided / non-voters | 11% | 10% | 13% |
Who Is Fit to Be Prime Minister?
| Candidate | Last Week | This Week |
|---|---|---|
| Eisenkot | 46% | 47% |
| Netanyahu | 35% | 37% |
| Don’t know | 19% | 16% |
| Candidate | Overall | Coalition supporters | All others |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eisenkot | 47% | 5% | 70% |
| Netanyahu | 37% | 84% | 11% |
| Don’t know | 16% | 11% | 19% |
Satisfaction With Election Choices
As party lists are being finalized: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the election options taking shape?
| Overall | Coalition supporters | All others | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very satisfied | 10% | 13% | 8% |
| Reasonably satisfied | 39% | 38% | 40% |
| Not very satisfied | 26% | 28% | 25% |
| Very dissatisfied | 11% | 7% | 13% |
| Don’t know | 14% | 15% | 14% |
Fear of Physical Harm to Candidates
Amid public debate about security arrangements for party leaders: Are you worried about a physical attack on one of the candidates before the elections?
| Overall | Coalition supporters | All others | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Worried | 39% | 27% | 45% |
| Not worried | 46% | 56% | 40% |
| Don’t know | 15% | 17% | 15% |
Religious Soldiers and the Namer APC
Should religious soldiers board a Namer APC with a female paramedic present, when commanders say the mission is operational? (Jewish sector only)
| Overall | Coalition supporters | All others | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Must board in all cases | 51% | 26% | 71% |
| Must board if military rabbi approves | 17% | 22% | 12% |
| Need not board if against their beliefs | 23% | 43% | 7% |
| Don’t know | 9% | 9% | 10% |
| Secular | Traditional (less observant) | Traditional (observant) | Religious | Haredi | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Must board in all cases | 78% | 42% | 29% | 20% | 3% |
| Must board if military rabbi approves | 11% | 25% | 33% | 29% | 7% |
| Need not board if against beliefs | 6% | 18% | 24% | 42% | 84% |
| Don’t know | 6% | 15% | 14% | 9% | 6% |
Fear of the Other Side Forming a Government
How do you feel about the prospect of the camp you don’t support forming the next government?
| Overall | Coalition supporters | Change Bloc (excl. Arabs) | Arabs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| I am very afraid of it | 37% | 36% | 53% | 19% |
| I am worried about it | 26% | 30% | 23% | 24% |
| I’d be disappointed if it happened | 20% | 19% | 16% | 27% |
| I wouldn’t mind if it happened | 9% | 6% | 3% | 24% |
| Don’t know | 8% | 9% | 5% | 6% |
How Certain Are You to Vote?
How certain are you that you will vote in the election?
| Overall | Coalition supporters | Change Bloc (excl. Arabs) | Arabs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will definitely vote | 74% | 77% | 82% | 75% |
| Will probably vote | 15% | 17% | 14% | 10% |
| Unsure if will vote | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Will not vote | 5% | 1% | 2% | 13% |
| Don’t know | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
