Political Snapshot
Madad Poll
Seat Projections & Public Opinion · September 23, 2026
1,503 respondents
Sampling error ±2.5% (95% confidence)
Sampling error ±2.5% (95% confidence)
Madad Poll — Shmuel Rosner & Noah Slepkov · In partnership with Project Midgam (Dr. Ariel Ayalon), Askaria (Dudi Dror), and StatNet (Yosef Makhleda). Additional data: Hive. Statistical consultant: Prof. David Steinberg.
The poll was conducted among 1,503 respondents with a maximum sampling error of ±2.5%. Field date: September 23, 2026. Elections set for October 27, 2026.
The poll was conducted among 1,503 respondents with a maximum sampling error of ±2.5%. Field date: September 23, 2026. Elections set for October 27, 2026.
Seat Projections
Knesset Seats (out of 120)
This week’s projection and change from last week. Reservists-Economic (Hendel-Zelikha) enters the Knesset for the first time with 4 seats. Religious Zionists fall 2 to 6. Votes lost to below-threshold parties: 2.9% (down from 6.2% last week).
Yashar! (Eisenkot)
22—
Likud
18—
The Democrats
11▲1
B’Yachad (Bennett)
11▼1
The Joint List
8—
Israel Beitanu
8—
United Torah Judaism
8▲1
Otzma Yehudit
7▼1
Shas
7—
Religious Zionists
6▼2
Amcha Yisrael (Winter)
5▼1
Ra’am
5▼1
Reservists-Economic (Hendel-Zelikha) NEW
4
Below the electoral threshold: Haredi Public Party (Leitner) 1.3% · Blue & White (Gantz) 0.8%.
Total votes lost: 2.9% (down from 6.2% last week) · Undecided: 4.6%.
Total votes lost: 2.9% (down from 6.2% last week) · Undecided: 4.6%.
Bloc Calculation
Four-Bloc Calculation
Change Bloc
52
LEADS
Netanyahu Coalition
51
Arab Parties
13
Between Blocs
4
For the first time, the Change bloc (52) exceeds the Netanyahu coalition (51). The “Between Blocs” category is the 4 seats of Reservists-Economic (Hendel-Zelikha). Majority threshold: 61 seats.
Turnout
Will You Go Out and Vote?
On election day, will you go out to vote? Opposition voters are significantly more certain to vote than coalition voters or undecideds.
| Share | |
|---|---|
| I will definitely vote | 76% |
| I’m fairly sure I will vote | 14% |
| I’m not so sure | 4% |
| I probably won’t vote | 4% |
| Don’t know | 2% |
| Coalition | Opposition | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Definitely will vote | 76% | 85% | 34% |
| Fairly sure will vote | 19% | 11% | 18% |
| Not so sure | 3% | 3% | 14% |
| Probably won’t vote | 1% | 1% | 26% |
| Don’t know | 1% | 0% | 8% |
Voter Loyalty
How Certain Are You of Voting for Your Party?
Overall: 47% very certain · 35% fairly certain · 12% not so certain · 1% not at all certain · 5% don’t know.
| Party | Very certain |
|---|---|
| Shas | 76% |
| Likud | 60% |
| The Democrats | 55% |
| Party | Very | Fairly |
|---|---|---|
| Amcha Yisrael | 18% | 42% |
| B’Yachad | 24% | 59% |
| Otzma Yehudit | 28% | 63% |
Vote Flow
Where Would Voters Go? Second Preferences
First alternative choice of each party’s voters if they weren’t voting for their current party.
| Current party voters | First alternative | Share |
|---|---|---|
| The Democrats | Yashar! | 52% |
| Yashar! | B’Yachad | 39% |
| B’Yachad | Yashar! | 43% |
| Religious Zionists | Otzma Yehudit | 43% |
| United Torah Judaism | Shas | 41% |
| Israel Beitanu | Yashar! | 36% |
| Otzma Yehudit | Likud | 33% |
| Likud | Otzma Yehudit | 28% |
| Amcha Yisrael (Winter) | Likud | 27% |
| Shas | United Torah Judaism | 27% |
| Reservists-Economic | Yashar! | 18% |
Prime Minister
Who Is Fit to Be Prime Minister?
| Candidate | Last Week | This Week |
|---|---|---|
| Eisenkot | 45% | 48% ▲3 |
| Netanyahu | 36% | 36% |
| Don’t know | 19% | 16% |
Coalition Preferences
What Kind of Government Do You Want After the Election?
| Government type | Share |
|---|---|
| Broad unity government | 31% |
| Full right-wing coalition | 29% |
| Full opposition coalition (Change) | 25% |
| Don’t know | 9% |
| Something else | 6% |
| Government type | Coalition | Opposition | Other |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full right-wing coalition | 64% | 4% | 22% |
| Full opposition coalition | 3% | 46% | 7% |
| Broad unity government | 23% | 37% | 32% |
| Something else | 4% | 6% | 10% |
| Don’t know | 6% | 7% | 29% |
Agenda
What Will Determine Your Vote?
What issue will most influence your choice? Cost of living tops the list for all camps.
| Issue | Share |
|---|---|
| Cost of living | 25% |
| October 7 and its aftermath | 16% |
| Leadership | 14% |
| The judicial system | 14% |
| Haredi military conscription | 12% |
| Religion and state | 9% |
| Don’t know | 10% |
| Issue | Coalition | Opposition | Other |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of living | 25% | 23% | 40% |
| Judicial system | 24% | 9% | 5% |
| October 7 | 12% | 21% | 9% |
| Leadership | 12% | 18% | 10% |
| Haredi conscription | 10% | 12% | 8% |
Scenario
If No Bloc Gets a Majority — What Should Happen?
After the election, if neither bloc achieves a majority, what would you prefer?
| Total | Coalition | Opposition | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New elections | 35% | 36% | 38% | 24% |
| Unity government (Netanyahu & Eisenkot) | 28% | 38% | 22% | 27% |
| Minority government | 19% | 9% | 26% | 9% |
| Don’t know | 18% | 17% | 14% | 40% |
| Party | % |
|---|---|
| Amcha Yisrael | 67% |
| Reservists-Economic | 43% |
| Likud | 41% |
| Party | % |
|---|---|
| The Joint List | 56% |
| Shas | 49% |
| United Torah Judaism | 46% |
| Party | % |
|---|---|
| The Democrats | 51% |
| Ra’am | 38% |
| B’Yachad | 22% |
