The Madad Poll
Political Snapshot · September 30, 2026
1,013 respondents
Margin of error ±2.5% (95% confidence)
Madad Poll — Shmuel Rosner, Noah Slepkov · with Project HaMidgam (Dr. Ariel Ayalon), Iscria (Dudy Dror) and StatNet (Yosef Makhlada). Additional data: Hive. Statistical adviser: Prof. David Steinberg.
Survey of 1,013 respondents. Average national margin of error ±2.5 percentage points (95% confidence). Survey date: September 29, 2026.
Seat Projections
Projected Knesset seats this week vs. last week (out of 120). Yashar! falls 1 to 21; Likud rises 1 to 19. The Reservists–Economic party falls below the electoral threshold at 2.8% — the “Between the Blocs” group drops to zero. Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism each rise 1.
Below the electoral threshold: The Reservists–Economic (Hendel-Zlicha) 2.8% · Haredi Public Party (Leitner) 1.3% · Blue and White (Gantz) 0.9%.
Total wasted votes: 5.9%. Undecided (no lean): 3.7%.
Bloc Count
The Four Blocs
Netanyahu Coalition
54
▲3
Knesset majority threshold: 61 seats. The Netanyahu coalition overtakes the Change bloc for the first time (54 vs. 52). The Reservists–Economic party falls below the threshold — “Between the Blocs” drops to zero.
Turnout
Will You Vote on Election Day?
Will you go out to vote on election day?
| |
Last Week |
This Week |
| Will definitely vote |
76% |
74% |
| Will probably vote |
14% |
18% |
| Not sure if will vote |
4% |
3% |
| Likely will not vote |
4% |
4% |
| Don’t know |
2% |
1% |
By Political Camp
| |
Coalition |
Opposition |
Other |
| Will definitely vote |
75% |
82% |
61% |
| Will probably vote |
19% |
16% |
14% |
| Not sure if will vote |
4% |
1% |
5% |
| Likely will not vote |
1% |
1% |
18% |
| Don’t know |
1% |
1% |
3% |
Voter Analysis
How Certain Are You to Vote for the Same Party?
How certain are you that you will vote for the party you named?
| |
Last Week |
This Week |
| Very certain |
47% |
52% |
| Fairly certain |
35% |
37% |
| Not very certain |
12% |
10% |
| Not certain at all |
1% |
1% |
| Don’t know |
5% |
1% |
Most loyal voters (% “very certain”)
| Party |
Very certain |
Fairly certain |
| Shas |
78% |
20% |
| Likud |
64% |
22% |
| The Democrats |
62% |
34% |
Least loyal voters (% “very certain”)
| Party |
Very certain |
Fairly certain |
| The Reservists–Economic |
24% |
45% |
| Amcha Israel |
24% |
52% |
| B’Yachad |
31% |
53% |
Prime Minister
Who Is Fit to Be Prime Minister?
| Candidate |
Last Week |
This Week |
| Eisenkot |
48% |
44% |
| Netanyahu |
36% |
38% |
| Don’t know |
16% |
17% |
October 7
State Commission of Inquiry for October 7
Are you for or against the next government establishing a State Commission of Inquiry into the events of October 7?
| |
Overall |
| In favor |
69% |
| Opposed |
15% |
| Don’t know |
16% |
By Political Camp
| |
Coalition |
Opposition |
Other |
| In favor |
43% |
95% |
68% |
| Opposed |
31% |
2% |
2% |
| Don’t know |
25% |
3% |
21% |
By PM Preference
| |
Netanyahu supporters |
Eisenkot supporters |
Don’t know |
| In favor |
40% |
94% |
65% |
| Opposed |
34% |
6% |
6% |
| Don’t know |
26% |
0% |
28% |
Governance
Term Limits for the Prime Minister
Are you for or against the next government enacting term limits for the Prime Minister of Israel?
| |
Overall |
| In favor |
65% |
| Opposed |
19% |
| Don’t know |
17% |
By Political Camp
| |
Coalition |
Opposition |
Other |
| In favor |
36% |
87% |
78% |
| Opposed |
38% |
5% |
7% |
| Don’t know |
26% |
8% |
15% |
By PM Preference
| |
Netanyahu supporters |
Eisenkot supporters |
Don’t know |
| In favor |
35% |
89% |
68% |
| Opposed |
42% |
3% |
7% |
| Don’t know |
23% |
8% |
25% |
October 7
Warnings Before October 7
In recent weeks there have been many reports about warnings conveyed to the Prime Minister before October 7. The PM denies the reports. In your view: were real warnings conveyed to Netanyahu before October 7, or not?
| |
Overall |
| Real warnings were conveyed to Netanyahu |
45% |
| No real warnings were conveyed |
28% |
| Don’t know |
27% |
By Political Camp
| |
Coalition |
Opposition |
Other |
| Warnings were conveyed |
14% |
75% |
52% |
| No warnings conveyed |
60% |
9% |
9% |
| Don’t know |
27% |
16% |
38% |
By PM Preference
| |
Netanyahu supporters |
Eisenkot supporters |
Don’t know |
| Warnings were conveyed |
12% |
78% |
38% |
| No warnings conveyed |
63% |
6% |
12% |
| Don’t know |
25% |
17% |
50% |
