Madad Poll
Seat Projections & Public Opinion · September 9, 2026
Sampling error ±2.9% (95% confidence)
The poll was conducted among 1,119 respondents, with an average national sampling error of ±2.9 percentage points. Field date: September 9, 2026.
Knesset Seats (out of 120)
This week’s projection and change from last week. Yashar holds at 22; Likud falls 2 to 19; Otzma Yehudit jumps 2 to 9; Together rises 1 to 13.
Total votes lost: 6.1% (last week: 6.3%).
The Four Blocs
Majority threshold: 61 seats. Both major blocs are tied at 53. “Between the Blocs” — no party in this group crossed the electoral threshold this week.
How Certain Are You to Vote?
“How certain are you that you will or won’t go out to vote in the elections?”
| Last Week | This Week | |
|---|---|---|
| Certain to vote | 74% | 76% |
| Probably will vote | 15% | 15% |
| Probably won’t vote | 4% | 2% |
| Certain not to vote | 5% | 4% |
| Don’t know | 2% | 3% |
If Your Party Is Near the Threshold
“If the party you are considering voting for is near the electoral threshold according to polls — what will you do?”
| Total | Coalition Bloc | All Others | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Take the risk and vote for it | 59% | 68% | 55% |
| Vote for a different party | 29% | 21% | 32% |
| Won’t vote / blank ballot | 3% | 1% | 3% |
| Don’t know | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Who Is Fit to Be Prime Minister?
| Candidate | Last Week | This Week |
|---|---|---|
| Eisenkot | 47% | 46% |
| Netanyahu | 37% | 35% |
| Don’t know | 16% | 19% |
The UAE Warning Before October 7
Reports surfaced that Netanyahu received a warning from the UAE before October 7 and did not inform the security establishment. Netanyahu denies the report. Do you believe the report is accurate?
| Total | Coalition Bloc | All Others | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Believe the report is accurate | 38% | 9% | 51% |
| Believe the report is inaccurate | 24% | 55% | 10% |
| Don’t know | 38% | 36% | 39% |
Why Did Israel Fall in the International Rankings?
Very low scores were published for Israeli students in an international math, science, and reading test. What is the main reason?
| Total | Coalition Bloc | All Others | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mainly because the education system is in crisis | 67% | 56% | 72% |
| Mainly because the test was held during the war | 21% | 30% | 17% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 14% | 11% |
